As revealed through our literature review, the MarTranS is the only comprehensive model that integrates multiple simulation approaches, system dynamics, agent-based modeling, and discrete event simulation to model the economic impacts of maritime transportation systems. The findings of this research help transportation agencies to prioritize future investment based on available funds. This research can help transportation decision makers gain a better understanding of the performance of the system components. The findings of this study reveal that the economic impact of the MKARNS is not sustainable in the long term without future investments in lock and dam infrastructure. Therefore, this aging and potentially unreliable system could become a financial liability to the industries that rely on the inland waterways to move their products. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) estimated 25 years ago that the cost of a delay was about USD 300–400 per hour, based on a 15-barge tow pushed by a 2200–4400 horsepower towboat. No recent national metrics exist for the cost of delays however, the U.S. As a result, the economic cost to the regional economy is considerable. Based on historical data, 90% of the locks and dams have experienced some type of unscheduled delay in recent years. A D means that the infrastructure is at the end of its life cycle and that there is a significant risk of system failure. The MKARNS infrastructure recently received a condition indicator of D+. Most of the locks and dams, one of the important components of the system, were built over 50 years ago. To better understand the economic implications of these effects for the future, we utilized a state-of-the-art multimethod simulation model, the MarTranS, to study several scenarios including Panama Canal expansion, channel deepening, port investments, and lock/dam investments.ĭue to its aging infrastructure, measuring the economic impacts of the MKARNS is necessary to better understand its current and future operations. Despite the importance of MKARNS, a lack of capital investment over decades has led to severe system inefficiencies and failures, billions of dollars of economic damage, and the loss of thousands of jobs. With access to the nation’s interstate highway system and railroads, it has a significant economic impact on both the region and the country. The MKARNS is one of the United States’ IWTSs, connecting the heartland to the Gulf Coast. The IWTS transports around 830 million tons of cargo and supports more than half a million jobs annually. industry, including construction materials, petroleum products, agriculture, etc. This waterway system secures benefits for both the consumers and the producers in different sectors of U.S. moves freight via 12,000 miles of inland waterways and 11,000 miles of intracoastal waterways ( Figure 1). The inland waterway transportation system (IWTS) of the U.S. In addition, among the different system components, locks/dams are the primary sources of system delays, so these should be targeted for investment and reconstruction to sustain and enhance the beneficial economic impacts of the system. The results reveal that the MKARNS under current circumstances is not sustainable in the long term and that future economic investment is needed if it is to continue operations. These scenarios include a base scenario (in which the system infrastructure remains unchanged and no future investments are made), investment scenarios (e.g., investing in deepening of the navigation channel, port expansion, and lock/dam rehabilitation), and a demand-change scenario focused on the impacts of the Panama Canal expansion. Real-world scenarios were analyzed to explore the economic impacts of various patterns of investment in the MKARNS.
#Using delay function in anylogic system dynamics simulator#
In this study, the Maritime Transportation Simulator (MarTranS), which is a hybrid of agent-based modeling, discrete-event simulation, system dynamics, and multiregional input-output analysis, was adopted to model the relationship between the components of the system and economic impact factors. The McClellan–Kerr Arkansas River Navigation System (MKARNS) is challenged by an aging infrastructure and by limited maintenance budgets, all of which cause transportation delays.
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